Fifth Book: Naked Statistics
Why Statistics is the Superpower You Didn’t Know You Needed. Numbers rule the world—but most of us fear or misunderstand them. Naked Statistics strips away the intimidation, revealing how statistical thinking helps you:
See through BS in news, ads, and "studies"Make better decisions with imperfect dataAvoid costly mistakes (like misreading correlations)
3 Mind-Blowing Insights That Changed How I Work1. The "Lifeguard Test" (Statistical Significance)Scenario: A drug trial shows 10% improvementTrap: Is this real or random noise?Tool: P-values and confidence intervals separate luck from truth
2. The Paradox of AveragesHeadline: "Average home price rises to $500K!"Reality: Could mean:Prices actually rose (good)Luxury homes sold more (misleading)Middle-class homes vanished (bad)
Fix: Always ask "Which average? Mean, median, or mode?"
3. Regression to the Mean (Why Hot Streaks End)Example: A sports star has a career-best gameMistake: Assuming they’ll do even better next timeTruth: Extreme performances usually regress toward average
Real-World WinsHelped a client avoid a bad acquisition (the "growth" was just accounting tricks)Saved a startup from overpaying for ads (they misattributed seasonal spikes to campaigns)
Who Needs This Most?✔ Entrepreneurs making data-driven bets✔ Marketers tired of vanity metrics
Best Quote"Statistics is like a lamppost to a drunk—used for support, not illumination."